Live $2/$5 · River decision

A calling station suddenly bets big on the river. Call with second pair?

Calling stations are the players you're told to value bet against. Fewer people ask what it means when one of them is the one betting.

The hand

$2/$5 No-Limit Hold'em, 9-handed. You have $855, the hijack has $1000. The hijack is a calling station: calls with almost any pair and hates to fold.

You: Cutoff, K♥Q♥ (middle pair)
Preflop: The hijack raises to $25. You call.
Flop: 9♥Q♠A♠ (pot $57) The hijack bets $30. You call.
Turn: 8♣ (pot $117) The hijack checks. You check.
River: 4♥ (pot $117) The hijack bets $90.

You have $90 to call into a $207 pot. What do you do?

How to think about it

1. Work out the price

You call $90 to win a pot that will be $297. So the call needs to win more than $90 ÷ $297 = 30.3% of the time to make money.

2. Ask what this player usually does

A calling station's natural move is to call. Here this player raised preflop, bet the flop, checked the turn, and now bet $90 into $117 on the river. Every time a player who prefers calling chooses to bet, it tells you something.

3. List what you beat

You have king-queen on 9-Q-A-8-4: a pair of queens, beaten by any ace, two pair, sets, and jack-ten, which made a straight on the turn. You beat bluffs, weaker queens and nines. The spade draw missed, but would this player turn it into a large bet, or just check and give up?

A general rule from our opponent models: passive players, calling stations included, rarely turn missed draws into river bets. A player who calls too much isn't the same as a player who bluffs too much.

See the engine's answer

LevelUp's poker engine works out exactly what this player holds here, how often each option wins, and its dollar value against this opponent type. Play spots like this at an animated table, explain your reasoning, and find out which of your instincts are costing you money.

Take the free 20-hand diagnostic About 25 minutes · no card, no signup to start

The takeaway

"They call too much" and "they bluff too much" are different leaks. When a calling station bets big on the river, believe them far more often than you'd like to.