Your draw missed on the river. Bluff or give up?
Missed draws can't win at showdown. Whether to bluff with one comes down to how often this opponent folds, not how much you want the pot.
The hand
$1/$3 No-Limit Hold'em, 9-handed. You have $500, the big blind has $600. The big blind is a nit: plays very few hands and rarely puts money in without a strong one.
- You
- Cutoff, J♠T♦ (no pair)
- Preflop
- Folds to you. You raise to $15. The big blind calls.
- Flop
- 9♦8♥A♣ (pot $31) The big blind checks. You check.
- Turn
- 5♠ (pot $31) The big blind checks. You bet $15. The big blind calls.
- River
- 3♥ (pot $61) The big blind checks.
The pot is $61 and it's checked to you. What do you do?
How to think about it
1. Work out what the bluff needs
Bluffing $45 into $61 risks $45 to win $61. It makes money if they fold more than $45 ÷ $106 = 42.5% of the time.
2. Ask what they called the turn with
Your jack-ten missed: no seven or queen came. The opponent checked and called your turn bet, then checked the river. What does a nit call a turn bet with on A-9-8-5? Mostly pairs: an ace, a nine, an eight, or a pocket pair.
3. Ask which of those fold to a big river bet
- Would a nit call a large river bet with a pair of nines or eights?
- What about a weak ace?
- Did the 3 on the river change anything for them?
The opponent type matters most here. A bluff that works against a player who folds too much loses money against a calling station, who calls with any pair.
See the engine's answer
LevelUp's poker engine works out exactly what this player holds here, how often each option wins, and its dollar value against this opponent type. Play spots like this at an animated table, explain your reasoning, and find out which of your instincts are costing you money.
The takeaway
A river bluff is a bet on how often the opponent folds. Count the hands they really have, ask which of those fold, and compare that with what the bluff needs.