You have top two pair on the river in the big blind. Bet first, or check to the raiser?
Out of position, many players check their strong hands and hope the raiser bets. Against players who rarely bet, that hope costs money.
The hand
$1/$3 No-Limit Hold'em, 9-handed. You have $600, the hijack has $600. The hijack is a calling station: calls with almost any pair and hates to fold.
- You
- Big blind, K♠Q♥ (two pair)
- Preflop
- The hijack raises to $15. You call.
- Flop
- Q♦8♠K♣ (pot $31) You check. The hijack bets $15. You call.
- Turn
- 6♥ (pot $61) You check. The hijack checks.
- River
- 4♦ (pot $61) You act first.
You're first to act and the pot is $61. What do you do?
How to think about it
1. Know your options
You act first on the river and the pot is $61. You can check, or bet $40.
2. Ask what happens if you check
The hijack bet the flop, then checked the turn behind you. If you check the river, will a calling station bet? Players like this call a lot, but they rarely bet hands like a weak king or a queen themselves. Often you'll both check and you'll win only what's already in the pot.
3. Ask what happens if you bet
You have king-queen on Q-8-K-6-4: top two pair. Worse hands that call: ace-king, any other king, queens, eights. Better hands: sets, and seven-five, which makes a straight.
A general rule from our opponent models: calling stations usually call a river bet with any pair, whatever the size.
See the engine's answer
LevelUp's poker engine works out exactly what this player holds here, how often each option wins, and its dollar value against this opponent type. Play spots like this at an animated table, explain your reasoning, and find out which of your instincts are costing you money.
The takeaway
If the player behind you rarely bets but calls a lot, don't wait for them to bet. Lead with your strong hands and let them call.