You have two pair on the river. How much should you bet?
Most live players bet the same size whatever the opponent. Matching your size to how the player calls is one of the easiest ways to win more with your good hands.
The hand
$2/$5 No-Limit Hold'em, 9-handed. You have $1000, the big blind has $1000. The big blind is a calling station: calls with almost any pair and hates to fold.
- You
- Button, Q♠J♦ (two pair)
- Preflop
- Folds to you. You raise to $25. The big blind calls.
- Flop
- 6♦4♠Q♥ (pot $52) The big blind checks. You bet $25. The big blind calls.
- Turn
- J♥ (pot $102) The big blind checks. You check.
- River
- A♠ (pot $102) The big blind checks.
The pot is $102 and it's checked to you. What do you do?
How to think about it
1. Know your options
It's checked to you and the pot is $102. You can check, bet $40 or bet $85.
2. Ask what calls each size
Sizing is a trade: a bigger bet wins more each time you're called, and a smaller bet gets called more often. The right size depends on how much the opponent's calling range shrinks as the bet grows.
- What worse hands call a small bet? Aces, a lone queen or jack, middle pairs?
- Which of those still call a big bet?
- What beats you? Ace-queen, ace-jack, sets, and king-ten, which makes a straight on this river.
3. Size for the player in front of you
A general rule from our opponent models: calling stations usually call a river bet with any pair, whatever the size. If their range barely shrinks as the bet grows, the arithmetic favours one size. Against a nit, whose range shrinks quickly, it favours another.
See the engine's answer
LevelUp's poker engine works out exactly what this player holds here, how often each option wins, and its dollar value against this opponent type. Play spots like this at an animated table, explain your reasoning, and find out which of your instincts are costing you money.
The takeaway
Before you bet for value, ask how this player's calling range changes with the size. Size up against players who don't fold pairs, and size down against players who do.