You turn top pair on the river against a good player. Bet, and how much?
Against good players, thin value is about choosing a size the worse hands can still call.
The hand
$1/$2 No-Limit Hold'em, 9-handed. You have $200, the big blind has $300. The big blind is a solid regular: plays a sound, balanced game.
- You
- Button, K♠T♣ (top pair, weak kicker)
- Preflop
- Folds to you. You raise to $10. The big blind calls.
- Flop
- 7♥2♠4♠ (pot $21) The big blind checks. You bet $10. The big blind calls.
- Turn
- Q♥ (pot $41) The big blind checks. You check.
- River
- K♣ (pot $41) The big blind checks.
The pot is $41 and it's checked to you. What do you do?
How to think about it
1. Know your options
The pot is $41. You can check, bet $15 or bet $30.
2. List the hands that call and lose
You have king-ten on 7-2-4-Q-K: the king on the river gives you top pair. The big blind called the flop and checked twice. Worse hands that might call: queens, sevens, pocket pairs, and weaker kings.
3. List the hands that call and win
Better kings like king-jack or ace-king, two pairs like king-queen, and sets. Would a solid player have played those the same way?
4. Think about size
A good player calls a small bet with a wider range than a big one. Ask which size keeps the most worse hands calling, while still being worth making.
See the engine's answer
LevelUp's poker engine works out exactly what this player holds here, how often each option wins, and its dollar value against this opponent type. Play spots like this at an animated table, explain your reasoning, and find out which of your instincts are costing you money.
The takeaway
Thin value is a question of size as much as of betting at all. Pick the size the hands you beat can still call.