You value bet top pair and a calling station raises. Call or fold?
You did the right thing value betting a calling station. Now the player who always calls has raised instead, and that changes everything.
The hand
$1/$3 No-Limit Hold'em, 9-handed. You have $500, the big blind has $600. The big blind is a calling station: calls with almost any pair and hates to fold.
- You
- Button, A♥J♠ (top pair, good kicker)
- Preflop
- Folds to you. You raise to $15. The big blind calls.
- Flop
- J♥3♠2♦ (pot $31) The big blind checks. You bet $15. The big blind calls.
- Turn
- 9♦ (pot $61) The big blind checks. You check.
- River
- T♣ (pot $61) The big blind checks. You bet $35. The big blind raises to $105.
You have $70 to call into a $201 pot. What do you do?
How to think about it
1. Work out the price
You call $70 to win a pot that will be $271. So the call needs to win more than $70 ÷ $271 = 25.8% of the time to make money.
2. Ask why a calling station would raise
Calling stations call. That's their whole game: they call with any pair, they call with draws, they call with hope. When one raises instead, they're passing up a call they'd happily make with a medium hand. So what hands make them do it?
3. List what beats you
You have ace-jack on J-3-2-9-T. King-queen, queen-eight and eight-seven all make straights. Two pairs and sets beat you too. The hands you beat, like a weaker jack, are exactly the hands a calling station would just call with.
Compare this with an aggressive player, who raises with bluffs and draws as well. Same raise, completely different meaning.
See the engine's answer
LevelUp's poker engine works out exactly what this player holds here, how often each option wins, and its dollar value against this opponent type. Play spots like this at an animated table, explain your reasoning, and find out which of your instincts are costing you money.
The takeaway
Read each action against what the player usually does. A raise from someone who almost always calls is close to the strongest signal at a live table.