Your draws missed and a calling station bets the river. Is a raise a bluff that works?
A raise represents a monster. That only matters to opponents who can let a hand go.
The hand
$1/$3 No-Limit Hold'em, 9-handed. You have $500, the cutoff has $600. The cutoff is a calling station: calls with almost any pair and hates to fold.
- You
- Button, T♦9♦ (no pair)
- Preflop
- The cutoff raises to $15. You call.
- Flop
- 4♠8♦J♣ (pot $34) The cutoff bets $15. You call.
- Turn
- 2♦ (pot $64) The cutoff checks. You check.
- River
- 5♥ (pot $64) The cutoff bets $40.
They bet $40 into $64. Fold, or raise?
How to think about it
1. Work out what the raise needs
Raising to $120 risks $120 to win the $104 in the pot. It makes money if they fold more than $120 ÷ $224 = 53.6% of the time.
2. Ask what this player bets with
You have ten-nine of diamonds on 4-8-J-2-5. Your straight draw (a seven or a queen) and your diamond draw both missed. The cutoff, a calling station, bet the flop, checked the turn and bets $40 into $64. Most of that is some kind of pair.
3. Ask whether they'll fold a pair
A general rule from our opponent models: calling stations usually call with any pair. You need them to fold more than 53.6% of the time. Would this player fold a pair of jacks or eights to a raise? A weak ace?
See the engine's answer
LevelUp's poker engine works out exactly what this player holds here, how often each option wins, and its dollar value against this opponent type. Play spots like this at an animated table, explain your reasoning, and find out which of your instincts are costing you money.
The takeaway
Before you bluff, of any kind, ask whether this player folds. Against calling stations, give up with missed draws and save your money for value.