Your flush draw missed and an aggressive player bets the river. Fold or raise?
With a missed draw, folding to a river bet feels automatic. Sometimes the line tells you the bettor can't stand a raise.
The hand
$1/$3 No-Limit Hold'em, 9-handed. You have $600, the cutoff has $700. The cutoff is an aggressive recreational player: plays loose and likes to bet and bluff.
- You
- Button, A♥J♥ (no pair)
- Preflop
- The cutoff raises to $15. You call.
- Flop
- 3♦K♥2♥ (pot $34) The cutoff bets $15. You call.
- Turn
- 8♣ (pot $64) The cutoff checks. You check.
- River
- Q♣ (pot $64) The cutoff bets $40.
They bet $40 into $64. Fold, or raise?
How to think about it
1. Work out what the raise needs
Raising to $120 risks $120 to win the $104 in the pot. It makes money if they fold more than $120 ÷ $224 = 53.6% of the time.
2. Read the whole line
You have ace-jack of hearts on 3-K-2-8-Q. Your heart draw missed. The cutoff bet the flop, checked the turn, and now bets $40 into $64. Ask:
- Why check the turn with a strong hand, then bet the river?
- What does an aggressive player bet here with: a strong hand, or a weak pair or bluff trying to win the pot?
- Which of those hands could call a big raise?
3. Know when not to do this
A bluff-raise only works against players who fold. Against a calling station, who calls with any pair, the same raise just loses more. Our engine works out this player's folds from our opponent models.
See the engine's answer
LevelUp's poker engine works out exactly what this player holds here, how often each option wins, and its dollar value against this opponent type. Play spots like this at an animated table, explain your reasoning, and find out which of your instincts are costing you money.
The takeaway
A missed draw can win through a raise when the bettor has shown weakness and folds often enough. Never try it against players who call with everything.