You have a straight draw and they bet big on the turn. Is it worth chasing?
Draws feel like they always deserve a call. Whether one does comes down to three numbers: the price, how often you hit, and how much more you can win when you do.
The hand
$1/$2 No-Limit Hold'em, 9-handed. You have $200, UTG has $200. UTG is a tight-passive player: plays few hands, mostly calls, and rarely raises.
- You
- Button, Q♣T♣ (weak pair with an open-ended straight draw)
- Preflop
- UTG raises to $10. You call.
- Flop
- T♥J♥K♦ (pot $23) UTG bets $10. You call.
- Turn
- 6♣ (pot $43) UTG bets $65.
You have $65 to call into a $108 pot. What do you do?
How to think about it
1. Work out the price
You call $65 to win a pot that will be $173. So the call needs to win more than $65 ÷ $173 = 37.6% of the time to make money.
2. Count your outs honestly
You have a pair of tens and an open-ended straight draw: any ace or nine gives you a straight. That's 8 cards out of the 46 you can't see, about 17% to hit on the river.
Not all of those are clean. Some hands this player could hold, like ace-queen, already have a straight. And your pair of tens is unlikely to be best against a big turn bet from a tight-passive player.
3. Ask whether implied odds can close the gap
17% is well short of the 37.6% the call needs. The gap can only be made up by money you win on the river when you hit. So ask two questions:
- How much is left behind? After calling you'd have about $115 left. Is that enough to make up the difference, even if they paid off every time?
- Will they pay you when the ace or nine comes, when it completes such an obvious straight?
A rule that comes from arithmetic: if the extra money you'd need to win when you hit is more than the stack behind, no amount of implied odds can make the call profitable.
See the engine's answer
LevelUp's poker engine works out exactly what this player holds here, how often each option wins, and its dollar value against this opponent type. Play spots like this at an animated table, explain your reasoning, and find out which of your instincts are costing you money.
The takeaway
Before calling with a draw, compare how often you hit with the price you're paying. If it falls short, check whether the stack behind can realistically make up the difference.