A nit bets almost all-in on the turn and you have a flush draw. Call?
Flush draws feel like an automatic call when the money goes in. Against a tight player with a strong range, the maths often says otherwise.
The hand
$1/$2 No-Limit Hold'em, 9-handed. You have $80, UTG has $80. UTG is a nit: plays very few hands and rarely puts money in without a strong one.
- You
- Cutoff, J♠T♠ (no pair with a flush draw)
- Preflop
- UTG raises to $10. You call.
- Flop
- K♠4♥3♠ (pot $23) UTG bets $10. You call.
- Turn
- 2♥ (pot $43) UTG bets $45.
You have $45 to call into a $88 pot. What do you do?
How to think about it
1. Work out the price
You call $45 to win a pot that will be $133. So the call needs to win more than $45 ÷ $133 = 33.8% of the time to make money.
2. Notice there's nothing left to win
After calling you'd have only $15 behind, so there are no implied odds to rescue a thin call. Your chance of winning has to beat 33.8% by itself.
3. Count your outs against this player's range
You have jack-ten of spades on K-4-3-2 with two spades. Nine spades complete your flush, about 20%. Now ask what a nit who raised from under the gun bets this much with:
- Big pairs, ace-king, king-queen and sets: your jack or ten high will rarely win without the flush.
- If they hold ace-queen of spades, every spade gives them a bigger flush than yours.
- Any 5 makes a straight for every hand with an ace, which a nit's range has plenty of.
Compare this with an aggressive player making the same bet: their range is wide enough that your high cards and outs are worth far more.
See the engine's answer
LevelUp's poker engine works out exactly what this player holds here, how often each option wins, and its dollar value against this opponent type. Play spots like this at an animated table, explain your reasoning, and find out which of your instincts are costing you money.
The takeaway
A draw's value depends on who you're drawing against. Against tight players, count only the outs that are really live and expect few other ways to win.