You have a set and a good player bets big on the river. Call or raise?
Sets feel like hands you should always raise. On some boards and against some players, a call wins more.
The hand
$1/$2 No-Limit Hold'em, 9-handed. You have $200, the middle position player has $300. The middle position player is a solid regular: plays a sound, balanced game.
- You
- Cutoff, 3♥3♣ (set or trips)
- Preflop
- The middle position player raises to $10. You call.
- Flop
- J♣3♠7♦ (pot $23) The middle position player bets $10. You call.
- Turn
- 4♣ (pot $43) The middle position player checks. You check.
- River
- 8♦ (pot $43) The middle position player bets $45.
You have $45 to call into a $88 pot. What do you do?
How to think about it
1. Work out the price
You call $45 to win a pot that will be $133. So the call needs to win more than $45 ÷ $133 = 33.8% of the time to make money.
2. Ask what beats you
You have pocket threes on J-3-7-4-8: bottom set. The middle-position player, a solid regular, raised preflop, bet the flop, checked the turn and bet $45 into $43 on the river.
- Ten-nine and six-five make straights. Ten-nine suited is in this player's opening range.
- Bigger sets: sevens, eights, jacks.
3. Ask what happens when you raise
The worse hands that bet here are mostly overpairs and top pair. Would a good player call a raise with those, or fold? And would the straights and bigger sets call, or raise again? Options: call $45 or raise to $125.
See the engine's answer
LevelUp's poker engine works out exactly what this player holds here, how often each option wins, and its dollar value against this opponent type. Play spots like this at an animated table, explain your reasoning, and find out which of your instincts are costing you money.
The takeaway
Before raising for value, ask which hands that bet will call a raise. If the worse ones fold and the better ones don't, calling makes more.