You make a set on the river and they bet into you. Call or raise?
Just calling with a very strong hand feels safe. Against players who call too much, it often leaves money on the table.
The hand
$1/$3 No-Limit Hold'em, 9-handed. You have $400, the hijack has $500. The hijack is a calling station: calls with almost any pair and hates to fold.
- You
- Button, 3♠3♥ (set or trips)
- Preflop
- The hijack raises to $15. You call.
- Flop
- 6♠A♣K♦ (pot $34) The hijack bets $15. You call.
- Turn
- 7♦ (pot $64) The hijack checks. You check.
- River
- 3♣ (pot $64) The hijack bets $40.
You have $40 to call into a $104 pot. What do you do?
How to think about it
1. Know your options
The opponent bets $40 into $64. You can fold, call $40 or raise to $110.
2. Ask what beats you
You have a set of threes on A-K-6-7-3. Bigger sets beat you, and so does 5-4, which makes a straight. How many of those does this player have, given how they played the hand?
3. Ask what worse hands call a raise
A raise makes more than a call only if worse hands call it. Here that's two pairs like ace-king, ace-seven or king-seven, and possibly one-pair hands like a strong ace.
- How often does this player fold a hand like ace-king to a raise?
- Would they call a raise with just a pair of aces?
A general rule from our opponent models: calling stations usually call with any pair. Against this type the question isn't "can I get called?" but "how much more do I win when I am?"
See the engine's answer
LevelUp's poker engine works out exactly what this player holds here, how often each option wins, and its dollar value against this opponent type. Play spots like this at an animated table, explain your reasoning, and find out which of your instincts are costing you money.
The takeaway
With a strong hand facing a bet, ask what worse hands would call a raise. Against players who don't fold, raising is how you get paid.