You have two pair and a nit leads the river. Raise for value?
Raising a good hand feels like maximising value. It only works if worse hands call the raise.
The hand
$2/$5 No-Limit Hold'em, 9-handed. You have $500, the big blind has $600. The big blind is a nit: plays very few hands and rarely puts money in without a strong one.
- You
- Cutoff, A♣9♠ (two pair)
- Preflop
- Folds to you. You raise to $25. The big blind calls.
- Flop
- 2♥4♠K♥ (pot $52) The big blind checks. You bet $25. The big blind calls.
- Turn
- 9♣ (pot $102) The big blind checks. You check.
- River
- A♠ (pot $102) The big blind bets $65.
You have $65 to call into a $167 pot. What do you do?
How to think about it
1. Work out the price
You call $65 to win a pot that will be $232. So the call needs to win more than $65 ÷ $232 = 28.0% of the time to make money.
2. Ask what a nit leads with
You have ace-nine on 2-4-K-9-A: two pair, aces and nines. The big blind, a nit, check-called the flop, checked the turn, then bet $65 into $102 when the ace came. What does a tight player do that with?
- Better: ace-king (aces and kings), sets like nines, fours or twos.
- Worse: ace-queen, ace-jack and ace-ten, which made a pair of aces on the river.
3. Ask what happens when you raise
If you raise, which of those hands call? A nit with ace-queen may fold to a raise, while ace-king and sets call or raise again. Options: call $65 or raise to $180.
See the engine's answer
LevelUp's poker engine works out exactly what this player holds here, how often each option wins, and its dollar value against this opponent type. Play spots like this at an animated table, explain your reasoning, and find out which of your instincts are costing you money.
The takeaway
A raise only adds value if worse hands call it. Against nits, the worse hands often fold and the better ones don't, so calling can be the higher-value play.